How America’s Tariff War Could Shake Up the Global Coffee Industry
As the United States continues to flex its muscles on the international trade stage, the ripple effects of its latest tariff battles are being felt far beyond the expected sectors. One of the more surprising casualties? The global coffee industry—and the UK might not be as insulated as we’d like to think.
Coffee, after all, is a truly global commodity. While we Brits are often stereotyped as a nation of tea drinkers, coffee has firmly cemented its place in our daily routine. Whether it’s a flat white from the café on the corner or a hot cup dispensed from a vending machine at work, demand here continues to rise. But most of the world’s coffee is grown thousands of miles away, in regions such as South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. So, when a major player like the US starts slapping tariffs on imports, it doesn’t take long for the rest of the world to feel the tremors.
While raw coffee beans themselves haven’t been the primary target of US tariffs, the broader ecosystem absolutely has. Equipment used in harvesting and processing, packaging materials, fertilisers, and even transportation links have all been caught up in the skirmish. This has driven up costs for exporters—and, by extension, for roasters, distributors, and retailers around the globe.
For American coffee businesses, the knock-on effect is becoming clear: higher import costs, tighter margins, and tough choices. But here in the UK, we’re not immune. Many of our favourite coffee brands source beans from suppliers who are deeply enmeshed in US-facing trade networks. If the US market tightens, exporters may shift focus or raise prices for other markets—ours included.
This disruption is particularly tricky for those of us in the vending and convenience space. Coffee vending machines, which have become increasingly sophisticated in recent years, rely on a steady stream of quality beans to keep up with customer expectations. If prices spike or supply chains become unpredictable, the quality and consistency customers expect could be compromised.
Beyond the economic side, there’s also a social impact worth noting. Smaller coffee farms—many of which operate on razor-thin margins—are often the hardest hit by market fluctuations. If US buyers start pulling back or become more selective due to tariffs, it’s the farmers in places like Ethiopia, Honduras, or Vietnam who suffer first. And that, in turn, has repercussions for global fair trade and ethical sourcing initiatives.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom. Some in the industry are using this moment as a catalyst for change—diversifying their supply chains, investing in direct trade relationships, and exploring more sustainable, localised models. There’s even renewed interest in innovations like lab-grown coffee and bean less brews, although those are still a way off from mainstream adoption.
